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Close Call For US Banks

Money for Nuthin!

Now look at them yo-yos thats the way you do it
You play the guitar on the mtv
That aint workin thats the way you do it
Money for nothin and chicks for free
Now that aint workin thats the way you do it
Lemme tell ya them guys aint dumb
Maybe get a blister on your little finger
Maybe get a blister on your thumb
Money For Nothing by Dire Straits

I always liked Dire Straits' sound, but I have recently come to appreciate their lyrics as well.

In Money For Nothing, they were talking about musicians who make money from playing music....hence, money for nothing, as playing music is hardly considered work.

Well, they could have just as easily been talking about the banking system . . . the originators of "money for nothing."

Consider the following by economist Howard Katz:

"The United States was a largely free market society from 1788 to 1933, but not completely. One important flaw in the system was that bankers were allowed to create money out of nothing (to a limited extent). Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson fought this and were partially successful, but some degree of banker privilege remained.

Commercial bankers would take in gold/silver coin and issue bank notes for the coin. These bank notes substituted for money. Then the bankers would make loans, not with their own money, not with depositors’ money but with bank notes they had created out of nothing.

Both money and credit would expand, and the bankers would make big profits. The bankers had learned that they could expand their notes up to about 4 times their gold and silver without having to worry about too many people coming to the bank to demand the gold and silver which each note promised. (My Note: Today this ratio is in excess of 10 to 1, and this process is known as fractional banking.)

However, sooner or later some banker would get greedy and go beyond the 4 times, and he would be hit with a demand to redeem his bank notes. Then would begin a cycle of money/credit contraction. A school of economists then grew up who acted as lap dogs of the bankers. They called the bankers’ money/credit expansion economic growth. And they called the period when the bankers had to contract a depression."

Legal counterfeiting....now that's the ticket! And they figured this all out BEFORE color copiers were invented. . . . . them guys ain't dumb . . . .

So the next time you hear the term recession or depression, just quietly smile and realize how prevasive lap dog economics has become, and thank God that you know better.

And armed with the truth, you won't be conned into playing the bankers' paper money games, which ALWAYS makes them the winner, and us the loser.

Just remember . . . . them guys ain't dumb . . . .

Stocks Vs. Gold

Here is an interesting chart from goldmoney.com.

The two most devestating financial crisises of the last 100 years have been the Great Depression and the hyper-inflation of the 70's.

In both cases, you could buy one share of the stock market for about 2 ounces of gold.

Today, with gold at $750/ounce and the Dow at 8,000, it would take you about 10 ounces of gold to buy one share of the Dow.

Assuming history repeats itself, as it always does (sooner or later), the stock market still has a long way to fall, or gold still has a long way to go up to make it back to these important historical milestones.

Most of the analysts I have read expect the Dow/Gold crossover point to be about 5,000 on the Dow and $2,500 an ounce for gold.

Although we should use history as a guide, we must not forget that the world is not static, so we should expect the general patterns of history to repeat themselves, but in the context of the present day realities.

For example, the Dow/Gold ratio bottomed out around 2 ounces/1 share of the Dow in the 30s. In the 70's, the ratio got down to 1 1/2.

Today, we find all of the world, not just the United States, printing currency at a much faster rate than in either of these previous two eras. Because of this, I personally expect this ratio to get down to at least 1 in the coming years. My expectation is Dow 5,000 and gold at $5,000/ounce.


On the other hand, if this current "crisis" becomes an "economic" crisis (ie. recession/depression), instead of a "financial" crisis, you could look for the Dow to go much lower, and the ratio drop well below 1.

In an article published in The New York Times on October 16th, Warren Buffet tells us that he has “been buying American stocks”.

Why?

“Today people who hold cash equivalents (banks accounts/bonds/cash) feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts. Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree.”

In Mr. Buffet's mind, cash/dollars will not even keep up with inflation, while over the long run (5+ years) he expects stocks to do much better. Why? Because they are tangible businesses .... not paper backed by nothing.

So from the perspective of the dollar, stocks are the better choice.

Using that same logic, let's throw gold into the comparison and see how it fares.

James Turk, author of The Coming Collapse of the Dollar, made this observation in his commentary back in 2006:

"On November 5th I advised that the stock market was over-priced and that investors would be better off by waiting in cash, but not ‘dollar-cash’. I said that investors need to be holding ‘gold-cash’.

From November 4th to May 12th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed from 10,530.76 to 11,380.99, an increase of 8.1%. At first blush that looks like an exceptionally good 6-month return. But we get a very different result if we measure the price of the DJIA in terms of gold. During this same period, when measured in terms of goldgrams, the DJIA fell from 717.82 to 498.36, an incredible decline of -30.6%.

Clearly, gold’s rate of exchange to the dollar (what we usually call the gold ‘price’) is rising more rapidly than the DJIA’s appreciation in dollar terms. Thus, despite what one might be hearing in all the misguided hype being bandied about as the DJIA approaches its all-time record high, you have been much better off since November owning gold instead of the DJIA. But this same strategy has made sense not only since then. It has also been the more prudent strategy for the past few years."


So, question: If gold was the better choice when the market was going up and things were good, what should you be doing with your money today?

The choice is obvious.

Gold Price Forecast

"Depending on whose opinions one takes into account, gold could decline further, stay in the current range ($650 to $850) or shoot for the moon when and if the current solutions to the credit crisis give rise to hyper-inflation.

As we have recently written, the metal might well be mentioned in some context at future global gatherings trying to address this world-sized problem. Whether or not such mentions might involve further sales to help the needy nations, or a complete reassessment of the metal's role in the global reserve system, remains to be seen. There have certainly been a rising number of calls for gold's triumphant return to the bedrock of the currency system."


Jon Nadler, Senior Analyst, Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal, Daily Commentary for October 27, 2008

Personally I am buying all I can at these prices, knowing full well that the price could drop even further. But it is not the $500/ounce that gold could be trading at in 5 weeks or months, but the $5000/ounce I expect it to be trading at down the road that is my focus. So whether I am paying $900/oz like I did a few weeks ago, or $750/oz. now, when it goes ballistic, it really won't matter what I paid.

So everytime I am asked, "should I wait for the price to go down further before I buy, I always reply, "the best time to buy gold......is when you have the money!"

Too Much Plastic Surgery

"The dollar is stable for now but soon it resumes the fundamental selling drama. Major trends have not changed in years. We went from over-bought to over-sold in all commodities including gold and silver. In previous precious metal rallies, there have been other -50% haircuts followed by larger rallies making the prelude look puny by comparison.

We think this happens again. No whining. Just wait and stay on the gold and silver course. Those folks at Goldman Sachs are acknowledged to be among the best traders in the world. When they like gold so do we. From our view, their new, positive gold statements reinforce our old forecasts. They are almost always trading winners."

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/oct152008.html


Watching the dollar rise and gold fall in light of the massive printing of new money (see chart below) is like watching Cher's losing battle against aging. Each new plastic surgery may be an improvement from the distance, but close up, it is downright SCARY, and it keeps getting worse.

The powers-that-be continue to sell gold short, forcing the price down, so that the masses won't view it as an alternative to their paper money. Their hope is that they don't pull their paper dollars out of the bank and buy gold. In fact, that is what this recent $250,000 FDIC public relations move was all about.....confidence.

The feds know that a massive flight from deposit accounts would collapse the whole system, as FDIC can't bailout the whole system, nor was it ever intended to.

Keeping that in mind, look at this recent decline in the gold price as a buying opportunity. Because, just like Cher, the dollar may look good on the surface for a while, but underneath it all, it's fake.

____________________________________________________________________________


"Leaving aside the various bailouts/ interventions (Fannie/ Freddie/ AIG), the Feds are now running the printing presses like maniacs. The Adjusted Monetary Base has soared from $873B on Sept. 10 to $1.017 trillion as of the Wednesday before last. The compound annual rate of growth since August 13 is 114 %. It’s not yet Weimar Germany inflation… but it is approaching Argentinean levels.

I realize some people are visual. And these are enormous numbers to picture. So perhaps the below chart will put this all into perspective. It’s a chart of the US Adjusted Monetary Base."

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Summers/oct222008.html

















source: http://www.globalstockmonitor.com/

Like Candy At A Parade

Last night's interview of Ken Lewis, BOA President by 60 Minutes was more confirmation that this whole "crisis" has been contrived and massaged to a pre-determined end.

When asked about the $125 billion just given to the largest 9 banks by the Treasury, Lewis stated that the purpose was to encourage them to lend money, thus, alleviating the credit crisis.

However, James McCoy, a local mortgage officer over at Regions Bank, tells me that he isn't having any problems with this imaginary credit "crisis." He said he is still able to make mortage loans to individuals with terrible credit!

I asked specifically about the underwriting standards, and he said that they were as loose as ever.

I guess nobody told Regions that there was a crisis going on!

Back to BOA, though..... Lewis said BOA received $25 billion of the $125B total, even thought they really didn't need it. He said Treasury Secretary Paulson, in a short and to-the-point meeting, informed each of them that they would be receiving the cash injection, no questions asked. (Personally, I always hate to be strong-armed into taking free money, as I am sure they were as well.)

He also noted in the interview that they were not required, but "encouraged" to lend the money. They could do whatever they choose with the money.....buy Treasuries, or could even choose to purchase smaller "troubled" banks.

How convenient! Look for the latter to happen "en masse."

The coup continues as the big dogs continue to be the beneficiaries of an unholy union between the feds and the bankers, where the fed continues to throw out taxpayer money like candy at a parade.

So what does this mean to your investment portfolio?

My only advice is to continue to stay away from paper (cash, bank accounts and bonds) as much as possible, and hold gold or silver in abundance.

These bailouts can only be accomplished by the continued printing of additional dollars, which dilutes the value of the existing pool of dollars held by you and I.

Picture a glass of iced tea, nice and strong, and someone pouring water into it. It won't be strong for long, nor will there be much demand for it.

So is the outlook for the dollar, so you'd better buy tangible assets as much as you can.

Demipublican

I couldn't have written this better myself!

by Howard Katz
"Everyone in the establishment is now running around saying that the economy is in terrible danger, that a massive crisis threatens. Well, when a general loses a battle, he gets canned. When an economy collapses into chaos, then the economic manager should get canned.

If the people who are in charge of our economy are as smart as they pretend, then how could we be in a crisis?

Let’s fire them all and get a new batch in who might do a better job.

In Tragedy and Hope Carroll Quigley describes the strategy of the establishment as working behind the scenes to make sure that both major parties follow the same policies.

Notice the recent Wall Street bailout bill!

Both McCain and Obama supported it. So did President Bush and Nancy Pelosi.

If you are caught up in the heat of this campaign and think that it is vitally important that one of these candidates be stopped, YOU HAVE BEEN TAKEN IN BY THE ESTABLISHMENT.

In this election, you will have two choices on the economy: the Demipublican and the Libertarian. That is reality. All the rest is image."



I have always heard that the height of insanity is to continue to do the same old thing and expect a different result. Well, I must have a bunch of insane friends cause they still think their Democrat or Republican vote will make a difference.

Please, wake up and quit wasting your votes, or you WILL pay for it in your investment portfolio.


Onward To Globalism

Allow me to vent, if you don't mind.

Two interesting things happened this week that lends credibility to the speculation that all of this "banking crisis" might not be as accidental as is presented.

In an unprecedented move, there was a "global" rate cut this week.

In other words, this problem is sooooo big that we can't handle it alone, but we must combine with everyone on the planet to solve this "crisis."

Yeah, right!

The other thing that caught my attention was how the stock market would take a huge dive right before the close every day this week. The CNBC talking heads explained that this was because everybody wanted to be out of the market overnight, just in case there happened to be a major meltdown in the Asian markets overnight.

Again, here we have another "global" problem that will no doubt require a "global" solution.

In days to come, look for solutions to these problems to be proposed that would give us less control over our own economic fate, and give it to the international bankers who created this mess in the first place.

Truly, The Killers Are With the Patient.

Wave bye-bye to American sovereignty as we are being sold down the globalist river, and are too complacent and uneducated to even know or care.

I guess the WWII generation WAS the greatest generation, because this one sure isn't!

Reminds me of the old Pall Mall cigarette slogan, "I'd rather fight than switch."

Well that generation is gone, and mine would rather "switch" than "fight."

We would rather take the easy way out, stick our head in the sand and pass these problems on to our kids, than stand up and do something about it now.

Our motto is "peace and prosperity at any cost."

And that being the case, we aren't worthy to enjoy the freedoms that our fathers and grandfathers died for.

We get what we deserve!

Osama or Cain? 'Bout the Same

The widely held notion amongh investors is that Republicans are conservatives and Democrats are liberals. This leads to the assumption that a Republican president will be good for the economy, while a Democrat will be bad. Republicans are supposed to be good for business, while all the liberals want to do is tax and spend.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

You do not get to be President of the United States of America without doing what the "money elite" want done. If not, you get a bullet in the head.

The identical votes by McCain and Obama, on an issue that was split down party lines in the House is just another example of this truth.


Uncertainty looms over $700 billion bailout plan for U.S. financial markets

The ambivalence of the U.S. political establishment over the $700 billion U.S. financial markets bailout plan has not calmed the markets. At the very least, it made clear that the politicians are not fully convinced about the need for government support for the financial industry which espouses free-market philosophy.

The House of Representatives rejected the plan by 228 to 205 votes, as a pre-vote speech by the House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, caused a majority of Republicans to vote against the bill while Democrats considered it positively. However, the U.S. Senate passed a modified version by 74 votes to 25.

Both presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama voted in favor of the bill in the Senate.

The modified version for the Senate included some populist measures like temporarily increasing the insurance limit on bank deposit as well as personal and corporate tax cuts of about $150 billion.


Never forget, it's always about the money! Social and moral issues like abortion, homosexuality and global warming are just smokescreens to distract us from what is really going on.

Don't beleive me?

Just ask Kennedy or Lincoln.

The Municipal Bond Scam

In the coming weeks and months look for your broker to call you offering 5% - 6% yielding tax-free municipal bonds.

DON'T BUY 'EM!

Municipal bonds are issued by cities, states and counties to raise money for projects such as power plants, schools or water systems.

These bonds are historically very safe investments as they are backed by tax revenue generated by the project or the government agency itself. But there are times when muni's aren't very safe. Now is one of those times.

Consider this from Bloomberg.com:

The hangover from the collapse in real-estate prices is going to be a boom in so-called dirt-bond defaults.

These are bonds sold by municipalities to build the infrastructure for housing developments, and are backed by the taxes paid by all the new residents who are going to move in. If no residents move in, or too few do, the bonds aren't repaid.

(Translated: You lose your money.)

The Associated Press reported today that, "Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger tells Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that he's optimistic that California will be able to secure $4 billion in short-term loans to keep the state running."

So, what if he doesn't get the loan. Does the state go under? And if so, what happens to all those municipal bond owners that have loaned their money to the state in return for those nice fat tax-free yields? Yeah, you know what!

And this isn't the first time around this block for munis. This makes me think back to the early 90's when I worked as an Investment Counselor (salesperson) at Wachovia, and all of us were pushed to sell municipal bond funds to our customers.

"Hey these things have great rates, they are tax-free, AND they are safe!"

Shortly thereafter, about $5 billion in munis went bust.

So, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, in summation:

Municipal bonds are Wall Street's product of the day. They are an easy sell right now. That's easy money for the broker and his firm. And never forget, whether we call ourselves brokers, investment counselors, investment advisors, financial planners, investment planners, CFPs, MBAs, RIAs, CPAs, the CIA or MIAs, we are all salespeople when you get right down to it, and salespeople are going to sell you what you want to buy.

So when you are presented with munis just remember, this guy is either inexperienced, dishonest or stupid.

Either way, run screaming.



(I, on the other hand, am honest, smart AND good-looking. Now send me a check!)

The Good, The Bad and the Amero

For those of you who are not my customers, I apologize for the lack of recent posts. However, due to the recent market volitility and the fact that my first obligation is to my customers, I have been quite busy as of late. In fact, I have been communicating updates that would usually appear on this blog, via email to my customers. Email me and I will add you to my list.

But I did want to bring you a few tidbits to consider.


THE GOOD
I have been preaching gold for 10 years now, and finally people are listening. In fact, even the main stream media is being forced to acknowledge that gold STILL is a safe haven in times of monetary instability. Because of the fear that is out there now, I have urged and moved most of my customers to a 25% gold position. Gold has nowhere to go but up, over the long term, as dollars continue to be created out of thin air.

Those of you with market losses, in my opinion, the quickest way to make them up is to buy gold.


THE BAD
Obviously, "the bad" is the stock market right now. As I write this, it is still in free-fall. Where is the bottom? Who knows?

Because of this, after it became evident several weeks ago that the derivatives crisis would affect over half of the banks in existence (Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis stated that he expected half of the 9000 banks in the US to fold over the next 5 years.), I moved all of my customers out of stocks/stock mutual funds with the exception of gold and oil stocks. These continue to fall, but they will turn eventually, as commodities prices (in free fall now) will resume their upwards long term trend.

How do I know?

Oil prices have dropped dramatically over the last month, but your price at the pump hasnt budged. Who do you think is pocketing the difference? Yes, the oil companies. I don't see how you can go wrong owning oil company stock.

Looking long term, when the stock market finally bottoms out, and it may be a while, there will be tremendous opportunity for gains for those with the foresight and conviction to get back in. So those loses we have now should be more than made up, just as in 1987 when we went through a similar crisis.

But for now, stay away and diversify.


THE UGLY/Amero
Should this crisis get out of hand, the dollar collapse, and the new Amero currency take its place, there is expected to be a 50% devaluation to the dollar.

London stock trader urges move to 'Amero'
Says many unaware of plan to replace dollar with N. American currency


Analysts: Dollar collapsewould result in 'Amero'

It is possible/probable that this crisis was manufactured specifically to bring this new currency into being. Do you really think the federal government was stupid enough to force Fannie and Freddie to make these toxic loans? Come on! I believe they knew where this would lead eventually, and WANTED this crisis so they could present their predetermined solution. (Thank God they are looking out for us! LOL)

A New York Times article from Sept. 1999 states that Fannie Mae had been under increasing pressure from the Clinton administration to expand mortgage loans among low- and moderate-income people and that the corporation loosened its lending requirements to comply.

(Lest you think this was really about giving minorities a break on home ownership, or Republicans against Democrats, the Bush administration has continued these liberal policies.)

The Amero is nothing new, as it has been in the wings since before NAFTA. It was talked about openly up until a few years ago, and has been surprisingly quiet since then. None of the mainstream press has said a word, which usually means they have been instructed to stay quiet on the issue.

NAFTA was the first step in the North American Union. Now that economic unity has been achieved, the next step is monetary union.

How ugly will this financial/stock market crisis have to get for American's to cry out for help, and the feds to ride in on the white horse named Amero to save the day? I don't know, but I do know that if that happens, you will lose tremendous purchasing power.

So, as always, CYA by diversifying!

That's all for now. Make sure to read the links above regarding the Amero.