Ed Steer of Casey Research usually has a pretty good since of what's happening in the metals markets. He had this to say this morning.

With options expiry and first day notice for delivery into the May silver contract coming up next week... all topped off with a record auction of Treasury debt... I'm not optimistic about anything earth shattering happening with either precious metal until that is out of the way... which won't be until the first week in May.

Any substantial rally after that [or even before, if I'm wrong about the time line] will depend entirely on whether the bullion banks show up to go short against any [or all] new longs that are placed. They don't even have to cover their short positions... all they have to do is put their collective hands in their collective pockets and do nothing... and we'll see a rallies in both metals that will truly take you breath away.