How low will the bear market go? It’ll go a lot lower than the 6,470 points that the Dow reached in early March 2009 because this is the Long Wave winter bear market, which follows the huge autumn bull market. This autumn bull market was two and a half times bigger than its predecessor of 1921-1929. The bear market which followed caused the Dow to decline by 90%. Considering the difference in size between the two respective bull markets we expect that this bear market would be bigger in percentage terms than its 1929-32 counterpart. Perhaps the 93% drop experienced by the Transportation index between 1929 and 1932 would be a fitting reversal. This would drop the Dow to 822 points. If we used the Dow peak of 14,200 points reached in October 2007, a 93% reversal from this point would see the Dow bottom almost exactly at 1,000 points.
The Longwave Group - Dow 1000
For a long time, Ive thought that what will happen is that someone will come out of left field and offer the world a gold-backed version of their currency. It could easily be the Russians, or the Chinese. And if they did it right, making the currency fully redeemable in gold, that currency would become the strongest in the world. As a result, capital would pour into their banking system. And, assuming they made some other reforms, namely cutting taxes and regulation, their economies would become real powerhouses producing sustainable growth.
Doug Casey - Casey Research



